Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.73 – 209.97

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.6 ±11.7

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 53.72Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX -6.76Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 83.77Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±13.3

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 96.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 79.09Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 34.22Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11274, 5274, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11274, 5274, 4698

Auto

8.5 7%

Teleop

66.8 57%

Endgame

42.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1857, 199, 5430

/ 100 compat

Projected

210 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 199, 5430

Auto

46.2 23%

Teleop

92.5 47%

Endgame

59.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.7pts

Blue projected score210pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 100–241
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.6Season APEX232.9

8.5Auto46.2

66.8Teleop92.5

42.5Endgame59.5

95Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	22
teleop	79	57
endgame	30	40
foul	0	0
total	154	119

Result

Final score

154 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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