Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.75 – 171.17

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.7 ±11.7

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 12.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 46.91Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 74.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±12.2

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 5.69Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 100.16Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 65.32Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7137, 9125, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7137, 9125, 3598

Auto

24.0 18%

Teleop

82.5 63%

Endgame

23.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9038, 1072, 9111

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9038, 1072, 9111

Auto

29.4 19%

Teleop

79.2 50%

Endgame

49.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score171.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.4
Score range: 102–203
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.7Season APEX316.1

24Auto29.4

82.5Teleop79.2

23.7Endgame49.3

84Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	77	27
endgame	6	26
foul	10	10
total	115	79

Result

Final score

115 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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