Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

459.42 – 160.99

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

506 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.2 ±11.2

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 23.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 382.21Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 53.99Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.2 ±10.5

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 18.88Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 28.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 113.46Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11296, 1678, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11296, 1678, 3598

Auto

108.9 24%

Teleop

259.1 56%

Endgame

94.0 20%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 701, 2141, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 701, 2141, 4698

Auto

36.2 24%

Teleop

62.6 41%

Endgame

52.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score459.4pts

Blue projected score161pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 298.4
Score range: 127–493
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.2Season APEX430.2

108.9Auto36.2

259.1Teleop62.6

94Endgame52.4

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	13
teleop	291	55
endgame	98	45
foul	0	5
total	506	118

Result

Final score

506 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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