Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.55 – 165.01

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±12.2

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 13.62Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 46.74Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 18.19Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.2 ±11.1

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX -10.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 80.44Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 94.62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4135, 10212, 6884

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 10212, 6884

Auto

23.9 31%

Teleop

30.6 39%

Endgame

23.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2141, 5458, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2141, 5458, 846

Auto

32.1 18%

Teleop

104.7 59%

Endgame

39.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.6pts

Blue projected score165pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.5
Score range: 47–197
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 178.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.6Season APEX321.2

23.9Auto32.1

30.6Teleop104.7

23.1Endgame39.9

48Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	53
teleop	3	63
endgame	4	55
foul	0	0
total	24	171

Result

Final score

24 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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