Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 293.47

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180 ±13.9

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 18.84Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 6.48Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -39.47Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.9 ±9.8

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 181.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 74.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 36.82Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2288, 11296, 3482

/ 100 compat

Projected

-14.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2288, 11296, 3482

Auto

8.2 0%

Teleop

-21.8 100%

Endgame

4.8 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5940, 6662, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5940, 6662, 2204

Auto

51.4 18%

Teleop

170.0 61%

Endgame

57.8 21%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-14.1pts

Blue projected score293.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -293.5
Score range: -31–324
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180Season APEX526.9

8.2Auto51.4

-21.8Teleop170

4.8Endgame57.8

72Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	37
teleop	11	208
endgame	13	93
foul	5	0
total	38	338

Result

Final score

38 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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