Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.81 – 285.67

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.7 ±10.5

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 23.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX -27.63Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 64.57Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.3 ±11.7

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 78.63Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 141.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 65.06Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 701, 6619, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 701, 6619, 2073

Auto

6.7 14%

Teleop

5.1 11%

Endgame

35.9 75%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9111, 670, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9111, 670, 3257

Auto

68.8 27%

Teleop

128.8 51%

Endgame

57.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score285.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -224.9
Score range: 30–317
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 172.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.7Season APEX461.3

6.7Auto68.8

5.1Teleop128.8

35.9Endgame57

72Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	63
teleop	62	147
endgame	46	26
foul	5	5
total	123	241

Result

Final score

123 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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