Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 49.29

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.8 ±12.8

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX -11.87Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX -13.94Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 24.66Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±11

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX -6.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -5.78Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 61.12Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5728, 7137, 10212

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5728, 7137, 10212

Auto

13.9 0%

Teleop

-15.5 100%

Endgame

-11.9 88%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2141, 4135, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2141, 4135, 3598

Auto

23.0 39%

Teleop

29.8 51%

Endgame

6.0 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-1.1pts

Blue projected score49.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.3
Score range: -32–81
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 175.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.8Season APEX275.8

13.9Auto23

-15.5Teleop29.8

-11.9Endgame6

86Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	54	50
endgame	24	21
foul	0	0
total	97	110

Result

Final score

97 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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