Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.95 – 147.99

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±11

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 104.16Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 46.83Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX -36.04Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.6 ±11.2

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 48.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -8.83Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 108.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1072, 2204, 6619

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1072, 2204, 6619

Auto

41.6 43%

Teleop

29.8 31%

Endgame

24.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4698, 2288, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4698, 2288, 670

Auto

19.8 15%

Teleop

81.9 61%

Endgame

32.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33
Score range: 83–180
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 179.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.3Season APEX538.6

41.6Auto19.8

29.8Teleop81.9

24.9Endgame32.6

113Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	70
teleop	36	153
endgame	56	72
foul	15	5
total	124	300

Result

Final score

124 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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