Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.98 – 166.38

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.6 ±11.7

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 57.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 53.24Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 30.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 563.8 ±11.2

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 40.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 76.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 50.13Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 3189, 9125

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 3189, 9125

Auto

21.8 16%

Teleop

92.2 68%

Endgame

21.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11296, 3257, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11296, 3257, 2073

Auto

46.6 31%

Teleop

66.4 44%

Endgame

38.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142pts

Blue projected score166.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.4
Score range: 112–196
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 164.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.6Season APEX563.8

21.8Auto46.6

92.2Teleop66.4

21.6Endgame38.9

71Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	28
teleop	178	81
endgame	55	46
foul	0	0
total	262	155

Result

Final score

262 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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