Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.82 – 156.39

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±12.2

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 40.85Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 8.67Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX -26.7Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±11

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 35.63Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 74.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 46.67Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2204, 2288, 2141

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2204, 2288, 2141

Auto

0.5 1%

Teleop

25.5 66%

Endgame

12.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5274, 6662, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5274, 6662, 4135

Auto

32.2 20%

Teleop

118.0 72%

Endgame

13.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.8pts

Blue projected score156.4pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.6
Score range: -9–188
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233Season APEX262.4

0.5Auto32.2

25.5Teleop118

12.9Endgame13.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	18
teleop	19	42
endgame	9	29
foul	0	0
total	55	89

Result

Final score

55 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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