Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.96 – 166.51

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

523 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 154.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.1 ±11.2

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX -29.69Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 32.42Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 247.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.9 ±11.6

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 19.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 49.31Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 97.48Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5430, 2135, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5430, 2135, 1678

Auto

57.5 23%

Teleop

134.8 54%

Endgame

56.4 23%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7137, 751, 5458

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7137, 751, 5458

Auto

34.5 22%

Teleop

86.4 55%

Endgame

36.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250pts

Blue projected score166.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.5
Score range: 137–280
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.1Season APEX261.9

57.5Auto34.5

134.8Teleop86.4

56.4Endgame36.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	31
teleop	267	51
endgame	119	49
foul	10	0
total	523	131

Result

Final score

523 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 154.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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