Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.89 – 155.67

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±11.6

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 46.33Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 11.48Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 48.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.8 ±12.7

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX -22.63Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 107.11Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 71.19Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3257, 9038, 1857

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 9038, 1857

Auto

31.8 29%

Teleop

55.7 51%

Endgame

21.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6619, 11296, 3189

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6619, 11296, 3189

Auto

44.7 29%

Teleop

78.6 52%

Endgame

29.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score155.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.8
Score range: 77–185
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.7Season APEX282.8

31.8Auto44.7

55.7Teleop78.6

21.4Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	22
teleop	77	13
endgame	52	6
foul	20	15
total	199	56

Result

Final score

199 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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