Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.39 – 151.37

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.8 ±13.9

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 43.94Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 24.95Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 35.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.4 ±10.4

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 87.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 41.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 22.04Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9125, 5728, 199

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9125, 5728, 199

Auto

29.2 31%

Teleop

43.1 46%

Endgame

22.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 670, 1138, 701

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 670, 1138, 701

Auto

31.7 22%

Teleop

80.8 55%

Endgame

33.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.4pts

Blue projected score151.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47
Score range: 75–180
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.8Season APEX389.4

29.2Auto31.7

43.1Teleop80.8

22.3Endgame33.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	51
teleop	27	90
endgame	22	36
foul	0	70
total	61	247

Result

Final score

61 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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