Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.24 – 222.58

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 117.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±13.9

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -16.89Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 78.95Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -11.82Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.2 ±10.5

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 160.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 43.06Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 18.99Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3482, 9111, 6981

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3482, 9111, 6981

Auto

-2.3 0%

Teleop

34.0 63%

Endgame

22.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1678, 4135, 751

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1678, 4135, 751

Auto

67.3 30%

Teleop

119.9 54%

Endgame

33.5 15%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.2pts

Blue projected score222.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.3
Score range: 22–251
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX565.2

-2.3Auto67.3

34Teleop119.9

22.6Endgame33.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	95
teleop	11	238
endgame	23	108
foul	0	0
total	34	441

Result

Final score

34 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 117.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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