Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.05 – 124.1

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 145 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±11

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 9.97Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX -3.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 42.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±11

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 42.44Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 16.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 65.25Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3189, 3257, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3189, 3257, 1072

Auto

17.6 36%

Teleop

12.6 26%

Endgame

19.1 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 7137, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 7137, 2204

Auto

20.2 16%

Teleop

67.2 53%

Endgame

40.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.1pts

Blue projected score124.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75
Score range: 22–151
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409Season APEX294.5

17.6Auto20.2

12.6Teleop67.2

19.1Endgame40

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	15
teleop	132	25
endgame	49	11
foul	35	10
total	276	61

Result

Final score

276 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 145 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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