Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.93 – 145.48

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.9 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 83.42Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 4.81Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 114.7Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.7 ±10.4

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 15.71Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 75.41Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 54.36Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 4079, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 4079, 3255

Auto

29.4 16%

Teleop

117.0 62%

Endgame

41.4 22%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 5817, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 5817, 1148

Auto

15.1 11%

Teleop

84.6 59%

Endgame

43.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.9pts

Blue projected score145.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.5
Score range: 126–222
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.9Season APEX387.7

29.4Auto15.1

117Teleop84.6

41.4Endgame43.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	57
teleop	77	91
endgame	48	51
foul	20	0
total	172	199

Result

Final score

172 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 pts

Match videos

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