Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.05 – 181.68

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

156 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.2 ±10.5

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 9.76Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 44.59Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 58.7Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.6 ±9.8

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 64.88Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 77.91Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 38.89Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6657, 9084, 9452

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6657, 9084, 9452

Auto

18.6 16%

Teleop

82.9 73%

Endgame

11.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2429, 5136, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2429, 5136, 7157

Auto

26.1 15%

Teleop

102.2 57%

Endgame

50.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.1pts

Blue projected score181.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.6
Score range: 94–201
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.2Season APEX495.6

18.6Auto26.1

82.9Teleop102.2

11.7Endgame50.3

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	30
teleop	108	77
endgame	35	44
foul	5	5
total	156	156

Result

Final score

156 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Match videos

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