Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
84 – 91.77
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
61 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 27.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±12.7
Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 13.9Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 25.86Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 44.24Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 13.12Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 25.65Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101Event APEX 53Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 399, 5025, 702
53
/ 100 compatProjected
84 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 399, 5025, 702
Auto
21.3 31%
Teleop
29.4 43%
Endgame
18.0 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3759, 3647, 2710
60
/ 100 compatProjected
91.8 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 3759, 3647, 2710
Auto
22.0 26%
Teleop
44.3 51%
Endgame
19.8 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score84pts
Blue projected score91.8pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 23%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -7.8
- Score range
- 65–111
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
254.1Season APEX283.4
21.3Auto22
29.4Teleop44.3
18Endgame19.8
49Consistency40
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 23 |
| teleop | 21 | 11 |
| endgame | 19 | 5 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 61 | 59 |
Result
Final score
61 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 27.9 pts
Match videos
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