Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84 – 91.77

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±12.7

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 13.9Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 25.86Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 44.24Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±11.7

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 13.12Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 25.65Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 53Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 399, 5025, 702

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 399, 5025, 702

Auto

21.3 31%

Teleop

29.4 43%

Endgame

18.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3759, 3647, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 3647, 2710

Auto

22.0 26%

Teleop

44.3 51%

Endgame

19.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84pts

Blue projected score91.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 65–111
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.1Season APEX283.4

21.3Auto22

29.4Teleop44.3

18Endgame19.8

49Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	23
teleop	21	11
endgame	19	5
foul	0	20
total	61	59

Result

Final score

61 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 27.9 pts

Match videos

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