Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
126.18 – 180.01
34%66%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
201 – 192
Prediction missed · off by 43.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 9.83Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 68.89Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 47.46Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 64.72Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 76.61Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114Event APEX 38.68Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5805, 5817, 1148
66
/ 100 compatProjected
126.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5805, 5817, 1148
Auto
11.3 9%
Teleop
77.5 61%
Endgame
37.8 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2429, 5136, 7157
79
/ 100 compatProjected
180 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 2429, 5136, 7157
Auto
23.3 13%
Teleop
106.8 59%
Endgame
51.0 28%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score126.2pts
Blue projected score180pts
Red win probability34%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -53.8
- Score range
- 107–199
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
387.7Season APEX495.6
11.3Auto23.3
77.5Teleop106.8
37.8Endgame51
3Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 38 |
| teleop | 97 | 85 |
| endgame | 59 | 49 |
| foul | 15 | 20 |
| total | 201 | 192 |
Result
Final score
201 – 192
Prediction missed · off by 43.4 pts
Match videos
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