Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.94 – 111.39

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.9 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 85.86Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 11.03Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 120.05Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.2 ±10.5

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 8.62Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 44.75Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 58.02Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 4079, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 4079, 3255

Auto

27.2 13%

Teleop

134.2 66%

Endgame

41.5 20%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6657, 9084, 9452

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6657, 9084, 9452

Auto

21.6 19%

Teleop

76.5 68%

Endgame

14.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.9pts

Blue projected score111.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.6
Score range: 92–236
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.9Season APEX446.2

27.2Auto21.6

134.2Teleop76.5

41.5Endgame14.5

4Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	10
teleop	57	98
endgame	38	2
foul	20	5
total	151	115

Result

Final score

151 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Match videos

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