Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.45 – 127.73

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±11.7

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 15.17Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 27.7Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 52.58Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.4 ±10.4

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 25.32Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 57.98Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 44.43Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3759, 3647, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3759, 3647, 2710

Auto

20.6 23%

Teleop

47.0 53%

Endgame

21.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2984, 2584, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2984, 2584, 2485

Auto

19.4 16%

Teleop

80.3 68%

Endgame

18.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.4pts

Blue projected score127.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.3
Score range: 76–147
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.4Season APEX374.4

20.6Auto19.4

47Teleop80.3

21.5Endgame18.2

31Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	32	43
endgame	15	41
foul	5	20
total	80	127

Result

Final score

80 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Match videos

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