Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.71 – 83.86

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.2 ±9.3

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 149.31Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 115.14Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 21.26Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.3 ±12.7

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 46.27Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 22.57Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 15.02Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3128, 2637, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3128, 2637, 1138

Auto

44.4 15%

Teleop

166.8 58%

Endgame

75.6 26%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 702, 6515, 399

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 702, 6515, 399

Auto

18.6 23%

Teleop

44.3 55%

Endgame

18.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score285.7pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.8
Score range: 66–304
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.2Season APEX235.3

44.4Auto18.6

166.8Teleop44.3

75.6Endgame18.3

28Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	26
teleop	163	27
endgame	29	2
foul	15	5
total	294	60

Result

Final score

294 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Match videos

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