Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.04 – 171.12

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.9 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 78.04Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX -1.53Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 108.53Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.6 ±9.8

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 59.51Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 76Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 35.61Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 4079, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

185 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 4079, 3255

Auto

26.7 16%

Teleop

101.4 59%

Endgame

43.7 25%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2429, 5136, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2429, 5136, 7157

Auto

27.3 16%

Teleop

93.6 56%

Endgame

46.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185pts

Blue projected score171.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.9
Score range: 152–204
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 106.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.9Season APEX495.6

26.7Auto27.3

101.4Teleop93.6

43.7Endgame46.1

3Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	33
teleop	98	79
endgame	93	47
foul	15	10
total	275	169

Result

Final score

275 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Match videos

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