Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.78 – 156.64

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.2 ±9.3

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 141.75Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 104.38Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 15.65Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.7 ±10.4

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 18.59Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 79.8Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 58.25Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3128, 2637, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3128, 2637, 1138

Auto

53.8 21%

Teleop

147.1 58%

Endgame

53.7 21%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 5817, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 5817, 1148

Auto

22.7 15%

Teleop

86.9 56%

Endgame

45.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score261.8pts

Blue projected score156.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.1
Score range: 138–281
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.2Season APEX387.7

53.8Auto22.7

147.1Teleop86.9

53.7Endgame45

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	42
teleop	112	90
endgame	46	17
foul	20	5
total	228	154

Result

Final score

228 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Match videos

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