Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.24 – 82.54

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.9 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 81.94Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 2.66Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 112.64Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±12.7

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 44.06Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 23.75Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 14.73Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 4079, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 4079, 3255

Auto

28.7 16%

Teleop

109.8 61%

Endgame

42.8 24%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 702, 5025, 399

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 702, 5025, 399

Auto

21.3 30%

Teleop

30.0 43%

Endgame

18.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.2pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.7
Score range: 64–216
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.9Season APEX254.1

28.7Auto21.3

109.8Teleop30

42.8Endgame18.9

2Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	57	21
endgame	47	7
foul	0	0
total	121	49

Result

Final score

121 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 pts

Match videos

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