Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.75 – 157.77

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632 ±10.7

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 2.82Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 147.23Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 117.7Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384 ±11

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 72.83Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 41.37Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 43.57Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10147, 3128, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10147, 3128, 3255

Auto

41.4 16%

Teleop

144.7 57%

Endgame

68.8 27%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5136, 2485, 702

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5136, 2485, 702

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

102.3 71%

Endgame

20.7 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score267.8pts

Blue projected score157.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110
Score range: 140–286
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632Season APEX384

41.4Auto20.2

144.7Teleop102.3

68.8Endgame20.7

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	33
teleop	194	82
endgame	71	69
foul	5	5
total	295	189

Result

Final score

295 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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