Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.66 – 50.34

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.1 ±11.7

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 36.21Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -0.76Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -6.79Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.8 ±16.5

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 18.56Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9772Titans Robotics

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 14.52Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 17.26Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9084, 6657, 10166

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9084, 6657, 10166

Auto

11.1 33%

Teleop

12.4 36%

Endgame

10.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3328, 9772, 4019

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3328, 9772, 4019

Auto

7.0 29%

Teleop

4.2 17%

Endgame

13.1 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.7pts

Blue projected score50.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.7
Score range: 11–68
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.1Season APEX135.8

11.1Auto7

12.4Teleop4.2

10.5Endgame13.1

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	81	9
endgame	28	0
foul	0	5
total	135	31

Result

Final score

135 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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