Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.59 – 34.41

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.3 ±11.7

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 14.29Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 6.15Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 66.15Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±12.8

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 22.27Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 0.98Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 11.16Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 399, 7327, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 399, 7327, 2429

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

44.6 51%

Endgame

26.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3647, 6764, 8060

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3647, 6764, 8060

Auto

13.6 42%

Teleop

15.5 48%

Endgame

3.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.6pts

Blue projected score34.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.2
Score range: 16–105
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.3Season APEX208.7

15.4Auto13.6

44.6Teleop15.5

26.8Endgame3.3

46Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	0
teleop	41	43
endgame	1	47
foul	0	5
total	76	95

Result

Final score

76 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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