Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.03 – 135.54

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.1 ±12.8

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 6.04Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 15.73Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 50.26Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±11.2

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 8.42Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 114.12Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 13Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3473, 1972, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

72 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3473, 1972, 1148

Auto

3.1 5%

Teleop

27.6 42%

Endgame

34.8 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4079, 2637, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4079, 2637, 4160

Auto

21.0 15%

Teleop

82.6 58%

Endgame

39.4 28%

Strengths

· 2637 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72pts

Blue projected score135.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.5
Score range: 54–154
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.1Season APEX347.3

3.1Auto21

27.6Teleop82.6

34.8Endgame39.4

5Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	16
teleop	15	107
endgame	10	54
foul	0	5
total	39	182

Result

Final score

39 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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