Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.34 – 47.08

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

52 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.3 ±12.8

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 44.76Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 20.17Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 33.41Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.6 ±12.8

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 21.72Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 2.72Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 22.64Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7157, 3759, 5025

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7157, 3759, 5025

Auto

18.2 23%

Teleop

43.3 54%

Endgame

18.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1138, 4276, 6515

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 4276, 6515

Auto

5.8 12%

Teleop

40.5 81%

Endgame

4.0 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.3pts

Blue projected score47.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.3
Score range: 29–116
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.3Season APEX195.6

18.2Auto5.8

43.3Teleop40.5

18.9Endgame4

26Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	15
teleop	10	25
endgame	18	10
foul	0	0
total	52	50

Result

Final score

52 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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