Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.45 – 193.41

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 80.8 ±16.5

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 17.33Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -11.54Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 8.66Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.2 ±9.3

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 25.5Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 59.41Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 108.5Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4019, 10166, 8060

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4019, 10166, 8060

Auto

8.2 100%

Teleop

-11.5 0%

Endgame

4.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 5136, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9084, 5136, 3255

Auto

27.8 14%

Teleop

127.6 66%

Endgame

37.6 19%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.5pts

Blue projected score193.4pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179
Score range: -4–211
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

80.8Season APEX693.2

8.2Auto27.8

-11.5Teleop127.6

4.7Endgame37.6

1Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	33
teleop	20	210
endgame	17	71
foul	0	0
total	53	314

Result

Final score

53 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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