Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.34 – 54.02

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 164

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±12.4

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 18.3Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 5.64Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 63.4Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.3 ±12.2

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 5.57Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 47.44Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 1.01Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3328, 4160, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3328, 4160, 2429

Auto

5.9 7%

Teleop

47.9 57%

Endgame

29.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 399, 2710, 1159

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 399, 2710, 1159

Auto

16.0 28%

Teleop

22.9 41%

Endgame

17.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.3pts

Blue projected score54pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 36–105
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 98.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.6Season APEX238.3

5.9Auto16

47.9Teleop22.9

29.7Endgame17.4

13Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	28
teleop	58	71
endgame	38	65
foul	20	0
total	147	164

Result

Final score

147 – 164

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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