Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.94 – 36.68

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

72 – 7

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±12.8

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 4.71Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 58.16Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 6.07Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.2 ±12.8

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 25.29Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 9.04Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 2.35Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4276, 2584, 3863

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 2584, 3863

Auto

7.9 16%

Teleop

36.5 75%

Endgame

4.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1138, 10147, 4711

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 10147, 4711

Auto

2.6 11%

Teleop

18.7 78%

Endgame

2.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.9pts

Blue projected score36.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.3
Score range: 19–87
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.5Season APEX207.2

7.9Auto2.6

36.5Teleop18.7

4.2Endgame2.7

62Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	2
teleop	36	0
endgame	19	0
foul	0	5
total	72	7

Result

Final score

72 – 7

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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