Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.2 – 33.27

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.9 ±15.6

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 17.14Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 61.4Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 9.66Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.2 ±13.9

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 1.34Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 9.6Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 22.33Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4019, 5136, 7327

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4019, 5136, 7327

Auto

8.8 12%

Teleop

41.4 57%

Endgame

22.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4160, 1972, 3759

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 1972, 3759

Auto

2.5 7%

Teleop

13.9 41%

Endgame

17.2 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score33.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: 16–105
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 97.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.9Season APEX125.2

8.8Auto2.5

41.4Teleop13.9

22.2Endgame17.2

41Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	52	48
endgame	32	16
foul	0	0
total	107	76

Result

Final score

107 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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