Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.53 – 0

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.7 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 90.34Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 39.53Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 79.66Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±12.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX -9.34Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -0.57Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 0.68Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 9084, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 9084, 5817

Auto

29.3 15%

Teleop

121.9 62%

Endgame

46.4 23%

Strengths

· 8 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 4711, 4276

/ 100 compat

Projected

-9.2 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 4711, 4276

Auto

1.7 0%

Teleop

-16.7 100%

Endgame

-0.7 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.5pts

Blue projected score-9.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 209.5
Score range: -18–228
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 98.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.7Season APEX227.8

29.3Auto1.7

121.9Teleop-16.7

46.4Endgame-0.7

24Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	9
teleop	83	27
endgame	15	0
foul	0	20
total	110	56

Result

Final score

110 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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