Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.47 – 38.06

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.5 ±11.2

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 116.31Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 59.11Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 17.05Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.5 ±12.8

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 17.2Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 1.23Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 19.63Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2637, 1148, 10147

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2637, 1148, 10147

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

116.5 63%

Endgame

35.5 19%

Strengths

· 2637 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2984, 3863, 5025

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2984, 3863, 5025

Auto

0.6 2%

Teleop

17.7 63%

Endgame

9.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.5pts

Blue projected score38.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.4
Score range: 21–209
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 95.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.5Season APEX268.5

31.7Auto0.6

116.5Teleop17.7

35.5Endgame9.9

53Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	10
teleop	64	31
endgame	62	25
foul	0	45
total	149	111

Result

Final score

149 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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