Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.2 – 67.52

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522 ±9.8

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 68.46Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 58.07Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 65.67Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.7 ±16.5

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 36.87Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 21.81Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 8.84Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2584, 2429, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2584, 2429, 5136

Auto

27.0 15%

Teleop

116.3 64%

Endgame

37.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6515, 4019, 4160

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6515, 4019, 4160

Auto

7.5 12%

Teleop

36.7 60%

Endgame

17.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.2pts

Blue projected score67.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.7
Score range: 51–209
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 95.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522Season APEX117.7

27Auto7.5

116.3Teleop36.7

37.8Endgame17.4

11Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	5
teleop	116	15
endgame	43	16
foul	0	0
total	176	36

Result

Final score

176 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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