Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.55 – 111.33

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.4 ±12.8

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 19.69Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX -0.98Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 0.84Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.9 ±12.4

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 3.76Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 14.9Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 92.67Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 968, 4276, 1159

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 968, 4276, 1159

Auto

3.7 17%

Teleop

6.1 28%

Endgame

12.0 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4711, 7327, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4711, 7327, 8

Auto

18.8 18%

Teleop

62.6 59%

Endgame

24.8 23%

Strengths

· 8 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.6pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.8
Score range: 3–128
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 95.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.4Season APEX409.9

3.7Auto18.8

6.1Teleop62.6

12Endgame24.8

20Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	19
teleop	15	23
endgame	6	7
foul	15	35
total	41	84

Result

Final score

41 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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