Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.58 – 0

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.4 ±11.7

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 83.04Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 31.19Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX -0.65Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 118.4 ±12.8

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -7.04Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX -8.48Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX -11Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5817, 2485, 3473

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5817, 2485, 3473

Auto

12.4 12%

Teleop

79.3 77%

Endgame

11.9 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10166, 6764, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

-26.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10166, 6764, 4079

Auto

-2.0 11%

Teleop

-24.1 100%

Endgame

7.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score-26.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.6
Score range: -17–131
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 96.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.4Season APEX118.4

12.4Auto-2

79.3Teleop-24.1

11.9Endgame7.5

59Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	15
teleop	81	21
endgame	18	2
foul	0	0
total	99	38

Result

Final score

99 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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