Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.99 – 63.97

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.3 ±11.7

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 25.59Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 42.15Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 49.25Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.4 ±12.2

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX -3.18Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 8.37Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 58.78Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5025, 1138, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

117 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5025, 1138, 2710

Auto

15.7 15%

Teleop

67.0 62%

Endgame

25.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 8060, 702

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 8060, 702

Auto

20.8 39%

Teleop

29.4 55%

Endgame

2.9 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117pts

Blue projected score64pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53
Score range: 47–134
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 97.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.3Season APEX276.4

15.7Auto20.8

67Teleop29.4

25Endgame2.9

37Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	6
teleop	22	14
endgame	14	14
foul	5	10
total	62	44

Result

Final score

62 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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