Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.96 – 53.06

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.4 ±11.2

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -11.08Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 55.59Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 78.45Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.4 ±12.2

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -8.58Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 1.37Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 60.27Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1159, 5136, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1159, 5136, 8

Auto

14.2 12%

Teleop

71.9 60%

Endgame

33.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1972, 399, 2584

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1972, 399, 2584

Auto

13.2 27%

Teleop

22.8 47%

Endgame

12.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score53.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.9
Score range: 36–140
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 95.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.4Season APEX240.4

14.2Auto13.2

71.9Teleop22.8

33.4Endgame12.2

94Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	13
teleop	129	50
endgame	36	41
foul	10	0
total	216	104

Result

Final score

216 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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