Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.82 – 5.68

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.7 ±13.3

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX -6.3Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 53.68Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 8.44Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.7 ±13.9

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 5.81Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 3.98Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX -4.11Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4276, 702, 3020

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 702, 3020

Auto

16.3 33%

Teleop

26.5 54%

Endgame

5.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8060, 4160, 3473

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8060, 4160, 3473

Auto

-1.6 0%

Teleop

1.8 23%

Endgame

7.8 98%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score5.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: -12–74
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 97.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.7Season APEX144.7

16.3Auto-1.6

26.5Teleop1.8

5.9Endgame7.8

21Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	6
teleop	39	7
endgame	9	13
foul	10	5
total	79	31

Result

Final score

79 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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