Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.62 – 52.19

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.6 ±14.3

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 46.98Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 94.23Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 20.41Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.5 ±13.3

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 12.09Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 28.9Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 11.2Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2710, 3255, 4019

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2710, 3255, 4019

Auto

12.9 9%

Teleop

98.7 72%

Endgame

26.2 19%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7327, 5025, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7327, 5025, 6657

Auto

4.8 11%

Teleop

30.3 68%

Endgame

9.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.6pts

Blue projected score52.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.4
Score range: 35–179
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 97.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.6Season APEX136.5

12.9Auto4.8

98.7Teleop30.3

26.2Endgame9.6

17Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	14
teleop	75	6
endgame	50	23
foul	0	0
total	182	43

Result

Final score

182 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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