Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.04 – 28.35

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 108.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.4 ±9.8

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 25.46Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 120.34Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 30.24Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±13.9

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 5.05Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 8.68Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 14.62Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1138, 3128, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 3128, 7157

Auto

30.3 18%

Teleop

84.0 50%

Endgame

55.3 33%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3863, 10147, 3328

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3863, 10147, 3328

Auto

1.4 6%

Teleop

9.0 41%

Endgame

11.6 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score28.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.7
Score range: 11–193
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 93.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.4Season APEX167.3

30.3Auto1.4

84Teleop9

55.3Endgame11.6

7Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	208	5
endgame	83	0
foul	0	90
total	316	105

Result

Final score

316 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 108.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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