Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
38.42 – 64.39
42%58%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
114 – 96
Prediction missed · off by 53.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 2.71Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 1.89Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101Event APEX 33.82Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.4 ±12.8
Season APEX 44.1Event APEX -12.86Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 22.83Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 54.42Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2984, 3647, 2710
21
/ 100 compatProjected
38.4 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2984, 3647, 2710
Auto
3.6 10%
Teleop
7.7 20%
Endgame
26.4 70%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4276, 9772, 5136
35
/ 100 compatProjected
64.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4276, 9772, 5136
Auto
9.1 17%
Teleop
44.9 83%
Endgame
-0.1 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.45
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score38.4pts
Blue projected score64.4pts
Red win probability42%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 25%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -26
- Score range
- 21–81
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
370.6Season APEX247.4
3.6Auto9.1
7.7Teleop44.9
26.4Endgame-0.1
45Consistency18
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 13 |
| teleop | 77 | 49 |
| endgame | 24 | 34 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 114 | 96 |
Result
Final score
114 – 96
Prediction missed · off by 53.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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