Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.8 – 103.12

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.6 ±12.8

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 76.46Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 23Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5025Pacific Steel

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 20.34Rank 16Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±11.7

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 59.74Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 6.53Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 36.85Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5136, 3328, 5025

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5136, 3328, 5025

Auto

15.5 16%

Teleop

49.2 50%

Endgame

33.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1148, 4711, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1148, 4711, 2485

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

58.8 62%

Endgame

19.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score103.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 83–140
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.6Season APEX298.5

15.5Auto16.3

49.2Teleop58.8

33Endgame19.3

33Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	3
teleop	34	64
endgame	19	10
foul	45	0
total	99	77

Result

Final score

99 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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