Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.47 – 26.85

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.6 ±12.4

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 33.05Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 1Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX -7.58Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.9 ±12.8

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -11.52Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 2.66Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 35.71Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9084, 10147, 6764

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9084, 10147, 6764

Auto

8.1 25%

Teleop

7.2 23%

Endgame

16.7 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1159, 5805, 3759

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1159, 5805, 3759

Auto

-3.0 0%

Teleop

26.8 100%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.5pts

Blue projected score26.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.4
Score range: 9–44
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 91.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.6Season APEX222.9

8.1Auto-3

7.2Teleop26.8

16.7Endgame0

89Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	41	4
endgame	14	5
foul	0	0
total	75	25

Result

Final score

75 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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