Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

5.66 – 6.81

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±11.7

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 14.32Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX -7.04Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX -1.62Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±12.2

1972Searing Engineering

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -2.91Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 16.65Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX -6.93Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1138, 6764, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 6764, 5805

Auto

5.2 0%

Teleop

1.2 0%

Endgame

-6.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1972, 6657, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1972, 6657, 2984

Auto

-7.1 0%

Teleop

-12.1 0%

Endgame

31.1 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score5.7pts

Blue projected score6.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.1
Score range: -10–23
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 89.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.3Season APEX203

5.2Auto-7.1

1.2Teleop-12.1

-6.8Endgame31.1

57Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	17
teleop	12	26
endgame	7	25
foul	5	5
total	33	73

Result

Final score

33 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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