Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.14 – 162.65

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±15.3

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 17.74Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -12.25Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 18.65Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.3 ±11.7

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 47.02Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 82.63Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 33Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4019, 1159, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4019, 1159, 9084

Auto

3.6 73%

Teleop

-9.8 0%

Endgame

11.1 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 702, 3128, 6515

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 702, 3128, 6515

Auto

26.0 17%

Teleop

90.3 60%

Endgame

34.6 23%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.1pts

Blue projected score162.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.5
Score range: 9–178
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 85.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.5Season APEX476.3

3.6Auto26

-9.8Teleop90.3

11.1Endgame34.6

79Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	64
teleop	60	180
endgame	20	58
foul	5	0
total	91	302

Result

Final score

91 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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