Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.35 – 67.69

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.9 ±15.1

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 51.36Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 42.69Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 12.3Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253 ±11.7

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 10.81Rank 32Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 35.83Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 21.05Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2584, 702, 4019

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2584, 702, 4019

Auto

21.6 23%

Teleop

54.8 59%

Endgame

16.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10147, 7157, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10147, 7157, 5805

Auto

13.4 24%

Teleop

21.1 37%

Endgame

21.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.7
Score range: 48–126
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.9Season APEX253

21.6Auto13.4

54.8Teleop21.1

16.6Endgame21.9

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	6
teleop	25	21
endgame	5	14
foul	50	10
total	98	51

Result

Final score

98 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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